Systems engineering in an age of complexity: Regular Paper

  • Authors:

  • Charles N. Calvano;Philip John

  • Affiliations:

  • W. E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering, 777 Dyer Road, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943;Centre for Systems Engineering, Cranfield University, Royal Military College of Science, Shrivenham, Swindon, SN6 8LA, United Kingdom

  • Venue:
  • Systems Engineering
  • Year:
  • 2004

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Abstract

This paper considers the creation of Complex Engineered Systems (CESs) and the Systems Engineering approach by which they are designed. The changing nature of the challenges facing Systems Engineering is discussed, with particular focus on the increasing complexity of modern systems. It is argued that modern complexity poses a major challenge to our ability to achieve successful systems and that this complexity must be understood, predicted and measured if we are to engineer systems confidently. We acknowledge previous work which concluded that, in complex systems, failures (“accidents”) may be inevitable and unavoidable. To further explore potential tools for increasing our confidence in complex systems, we review research in the field of Complexity Theory to seek potentially useful approaches and measures and find ourselves particularly interested in the potential usefulness of relationships between the magnitudes of events and their frequency of occurrence. Complexity Theory is found to have characterized naturally occurring systems and to potentially be the source of profitable application to the systems engineering challenge, viz., the creation of complex engineered systems. We are left with the tentative conclusion that truly complex systems, with our present understanding of complex behavior, cannot be designed with a degree of confidence that is acceptable given our current expectations. We recommend that the discipline of systems engineering must investigate this issue as a matter of priority and urgency and seek to develop approaches to respond to the challenge. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Syst Eng 7: 25–34, 2004This paper was made possible by a Visiting Fellowship grant from the Leverhulme Trust permitting author Calvano to visit at Cranfield University/RMCS.This article is a US Government work and, as such, is in the public domain in the United States of America.