Measures of uncertainty in expert systems
Artificial Intelligence
Supremum preserving upper probabilities
Information Sciences: an International Journal
Probability updating using second order probabilities and conditional event algebra
Information Sciences: an International Journal
Second-order decision analysis
International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems
Imprecise second-order hierarchical uncertainty model
International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems
Second-order uncertainty calculations by using the imprecise Dirichlet model
Intelligent Data Analysis
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A new hierarchical uncertainty model for combining different evidence about a system of statistically independent random variables is studied in the paper. It is assumed that the first-order level of the model is represented by sets of lower and upper previsions (expectations) of random variables and the second-order level is represented by sets of lower and upper probabilities which can be viewed as confidence weights for interval-valued expectations of the first-order level. The model is rather general and allows us to compute probability bounds and "average" bounds for previsions of a function of random variables. A numerical example illustrates this model.