On the construction of a nonlinear recursive predictor

  • Authors:
  • Ovidiu Voitcu;Yau Shu Wong

  • Affiliations:
  • Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada;Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada

  • Venue:
  • Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics - Special issue: International conference on mathematics and its application
  • Year:
  • 2006

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Abstract

In this paper, we present a novel approach for constructing a nonlinear recursive predictor. Given a limited time series data set, our goal is to develop a predictor that is capable of providing reliable long-term forecasting. The approach is based on the use of an artificial neural network and we propose a combination of network architecture, training algorithm, and special procedures for scaling and initializing the weight coefficients. For time series arising from nonlinear dynamical systems, the power of the proposed predictor has been successfully demonstrated by testing on data sets obtained from numerical simulations and actual experiments.