Simulation in context: using data farming for decision support

  • Authors:
  • Philip Barry;Matthew Koehler

  • Affiliations:
  • The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA;The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA

  • Venue:
  • WSC '04 Proceedings of the 36th conference on Winter simulation
  • Year:
  • 2004

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Abstract

Data Farming leverages high performance computing to run simple models many times. This process allows for the exploration of massive parameter spaces relatively quickly. This paper explores a methodology to use Data Farming as a decision support tool. Data Farming can be a highly effective in this role because it allows one to present to a decision-maker not only what may be the most likely outcome but what are possible outcomes, especially outliers that might have far reaching impact. The terrorist attacks of September 2001 are a good example of an outlier with very high impact. A case study is presented using a simple terrorist attack simulation and decision-maker utility model.