Management Science
Simulation-based estimation of quantiles
Proceedings of the 31st conference on Winter simulation: Simulation---a bridge to the future - Volume 1
Proceedings of the 35th conference on Winter simulation: driving innovation
Indirect cycle-time quantile estimation for non-FIFO dispatching policies
Proceedings of the 38th conference on Winter simulation
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Cycle time-throughput (CT-TH) percentile curves quantify the relationship between percentiles of cycle time and factory throughput, and they can play an important role in strategic planning for manufacturing systems. In this paper, a highly flexible distribution, the generalized gamma, is used to represent the underlying distribution of cycle time. To obtain CT-TH percentile curves, we fit metamodels for the first three CT-TH moment curves throughout the throughput range of interest, determine the parameters of the generalized gamma by matching moments, and obtain percentiles by inverting the distribution. To insure efficiency and control estimation error, simulation experiments are built up sequentially using a multistage procedure. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.