Efficient importance sampling heuristics for the simulation of population overflow in Jackson networks

  • Authors:
  • Victor F. Nicola;Tatiana S. Zaburnenko

  • Affiliations:
  • University of Twente, AE Enschede, The Netherlands;University of Twente, AE Enschede, The Netherlands

  • Venue:
  • WSC '05 Proceedings of the 37th conference on Winter simulation
  • Year:
  • 2005

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Abstract

In this paper we propose state-dependent importance sampling heuristics to estimate the probability of population overflow in Jackson networks with arbitrary routing. These heuristics approximate the "optimal" state-dependent change of measure without the need for costly optimization involved in other recently proposed adaptive algorithms. Experimental results on tandem, feed-forward and feed-back networks with a moderate number of nodes yield asymptotically efficient estimates (often with bounded relative error) where no other state-independent importance sampling techniques are known to be efficient.