A graph-based system for network-vulnerability analysis
Proceedings of the 1998 workshop on New security paradigms
Automated Generation and Analysis of Attack Graphs
SP '02 Proceedings of the 2002 IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy
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A model of malicious intrusions in infrastructure facilities is developed that uses a network representation of the system structure together with Markov models of intruder progress and strategy. Simulation is used to analyze varying levels of imperfect information on the part of the intruders in planning their attacks. This provides an explicit mechanism to estimate the probability of successful breaches of physical security, and to evaluate potential means to reduce that probability.