The application of evaluation method based on HMM for results validity of complex simulation system

  • Authors:
  • Hengjie Song;Ping Ma;Ming Yang

  • Affiliations:
  • Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, Heilongjiang, P.R.C.;Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, Heilongjiang, P.R.C.;Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, Heilongjiang, P.R.C.

  • Venue:
  • WSC '05 Proceedings of the 37th conference on Winter simulation
  • Year:
  • 2005

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Abstract

According to the characteristic of randomization and sequential logic in complex simulation systems, a new evaluation method based on hidden Markov model (HMM) is presented, which applies multivariate statistical theory to quantificationally evaluate the results validity of complex simulation system. By importing matrix of observed state vector, the method enhance the clarity of describing scenario and running states of simulation systems, and ultimately implement an exploring approach to quantitative analysis for the results validity. Furthermore, quantificational evaluation criterion of results validity is given and the critical algorithm adopted in the process of quantificational evaluation is discussed in detail.