Uncertainty analysis in political forecasting

Authors:
Gleiber Fernandes Royes;Rogério Cid Bastos
Affiliations:
Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina--Curso de Pós-Graduação em Ciência da Computação, Florianópolis--SC--Brazil;Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina--Curso de Pós-Graduação em Ciência da Computação, Florianópolis--SC--Brazil
Venue:
Decision Support Systems
Year:
2006

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Abstract

Medicine, engineering, and finance are traditional fields for the application of Fuzzy Logic (FL); however, in social sciences, the utilization of FL can be intensely explored as a valuable analysis instrument. Joining fuzzy with Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), the natural complex and uncertain criteria of social problems can be adequately explored. A suitable uncertainty analysis is the focal point in the social field. In this direction, an intelligent computational method for election forecasting is proposed as a practical result of this research. The main objective is to present a more flexible methodology for political assessment comparing to traditional methods.