Fuzzy Sets, Fuzzy Logic, Applications
Fuzzy Sets, Fuzzy Logic, Applications
Remarks on uncertainty assessment and management in modeling and computation
Mathematical and Computer Modelling: An International Journal
Recent advances in intelligent decision technologies
KES'07/WIRN'07 Proceedings of the 11th international conference, KES 2007 and XVII Italian workshop on neural networks conference on Knowledge-based intelligent information and engineering systems: Part I
Application of fuzzy sets for the determination of electricity tariffs
CSCC'11 Proceedings of the 2nd international conference on Circuits, Systems, Communications & Computers
| Hi-index | 0.00 |
Risk evaluation and strategic choice has become very complex for power providers, because of the growing number of uncertain parameters involved, such as energy market prices, water inflow, and demand. The lack of information and the absence of the decision maker's perception are just some of the many elements that must be accounted for. Therefore, with an approach based on fuzzy set theory, this paper aims to propose a methodology based on strategic choices that will enable decision makers to evaluate the performance of their strategies and portfolios through the computation of an indicator of economic performance, for different time-horizons. By subsequently considering the different imprecise parameters-such as the electricity spot price, the natural gas market price, rainfall and snow, etc.-in the assessment of different strategies and the analyzation of their impacts through scenario analysis, it is concluded that the resulting profit depends not only on the perception of the market player, but also on the imprecision of the variables-the same strategy may produce two different results under a different combination of parameters-as well as on the time-horizon considered. On a simple basis, it has also been possible to compare portfolios of customers.