Economics on the edge of chaos: Some pitfalls of linearizing complex systems

  • Authors:
  • Les Oxley;Donald A. R. George

  • Affiliations:
  • Department of Economics, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand;Department of Economics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK

  • Venue:
  • Environmental Modelling & Software
  • Year:
  • 2007

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Abstract

We discuss some issues and challenges facing economic modellers when confronted with data generated within a non-linear world. The pitfalls associated with the linearisation of inherently non-linear models are raised and the concept of robustness defined and proposed as a necessary property of scientifically valid models. The existence of chaos in economic time series is discussed and an example, using financial data, presented.