On measuring and profiling catastrophic risks

  • Authors:
  • V. I. Norkin

  • Affiliations:
  • V. M. Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

  • Venue:
  • Cybernetics and Systems Analysis
  • Year:
  • 2006

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Abstract

An approach to decision-making under catastrophic risks based on risk profiling is proposed. The approach assumes, for some selected catastrophic scenarios, to simulate their consequences (damage) as functions of control parameters and to impose expert constraints on acceptable levels of relative losses in such scenarios. The approach is illustrated by a number of one-stage decision-making problems reduced to mixed linear-programming problems.