Developing and assessing an intelligent forex rolling forecasting and trading decision support system for online e-service: Research Articles

  • Authors:

  • Lean Yu;Shouyang Wang;Kin Keung Lai;Wayne W. Huang

  • Affiliations:

  • Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China and School of Management, Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Science ...;School of Management, Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China and College of Business Administration, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China;College of Business Administration, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China and Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong;Department of Management Information Systems, College of Business, Ohio University, Athens, Ohio 45071, USA

  • Venue:
  • International Journal of Intelligent Systems
  • Year:
  • 2007

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Abstract

An effective foreign exchange (forex) trading decision is usually dependent on effective forex forecasting. In this study, an intelligent system framework integrating forex forecasting and trading decision is first proposed. Based on this framework, an advanced intelligent decision support system (DSS) incorporating a back-propagation neural network (BPNN)-based forex forecasting subsystem and Web-based forex trading decision support subsystem is developed, which has been used to predict the directional change of daily forex rates and provide intelligent online decision support for financial institutions and individual investors. This article describes the forex forecasting and trading decision method, the system architecture, main functions, and operation of the developed DSS system. A comparative study is conducted between our developed system and others commonly used in order to assess the overall performance of the developed system. The assessment results show that our developed DSS outperforms some commonly used forex forecasting and trading decision systems and can provide intelligent e-service for forex traders to make useful trading decisions in the forex market. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J Int Syst 22: 475–499, 2007.