Predicting criminal relationships using multivariate survival analysis

  • Authors:
  • Siddharth Kaza;Daning Hu;Homa Atabakhsh;Hsinchun Chen

  • Affiliations:
  • University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ;University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ;University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ;University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

  • Venue:
  • dg.o '07 Proceedings of the 8th annual international conference on Digital government research: bridging disciplines & domains
  • Year:
  • 2007

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Abstract

Criminal networks evolve over time with the formation and dissolution of links to survive control efforts by government authorities. Previous studies have shown that the link formation process in such networks is influenced by a set of facilitators. However, there have been few empirical evaluations to determine the significant facilitators. In this study, we used dynamic social network analysis methods to examine several plausible link formation facilitators in a large-scale real-world narcotics network. Multivariate Cox regression showed that mutual acquaintance and vehicle affiliations were significant facilitators in the network under study. The findings shown in this poster can help government authorities automatically predict co-offending relationships in future crimes.