Similarity-Based Forecasting with Simultaneous Previews: A River Plot Interface for Time Series Forecasting

Authors:
Paolo Buono;Catherine Plaisant;Adalberto Simeone;Aleks Aris;Galit Shmueli;Wolfgang Jank
Affiliations:
Università di Bari, Bari, Italy;Human-Computer Interaction Laboratory;Università di Bari, Bari, Italy;University of Maryland;University of Maryland;University of Maryland
Venue:
IV '07 Proceedings of the 11th International Conference Information Visualization
Year:
2007

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Abstract

Time-series forecasting has a large number of applications. Users with a partial time series for auctions, new stock offerings, or industrial processes desire estimates of the future behavior. We present a data driven forecasting method and interface called Similarity-Based Forecasting (SBF). A pattern matching search in an historical time series dataset produces a subset of curves similar to the partial time series. The forecast is displayed graphically as a river plot showing statistical information about the SBF subset. A forecasting preview interface allows users to interactively explore alternative pattern matching parameters and see multiple forecasts simultaneously. User testing with 8 users demonstrated advantages and led to improvements.