Folded standardized time series area variance estimators for simulation

  • Authors:
  • Claudia Antonini;Christos Alexopoulos;David Goldsman;James R. Wilson

  • Affiliations:
  • Universidad Simón Bolivar, Sartenejas, Venezuela;Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA;Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA;North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC

  • Venue:
  • Proceedings of the 39th conference on Winter simulation: 40 years! The best is yet to come
  • Year:
  • 2007

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Abstract

We estimate the variance parameter of a stationary simulation-generated process using "folded" versions of standardized time series area estimators. We formulate improved variance estimators based on the combination of multiple folding levels as well as the use of batching. The improved estimators preserve the asymptotic bias properties of their predecessors but have substantially lower variance. A Monte Carlo example demonstrates the efficacy of the new methodology.