Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference
Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference
BBN-based software project risk management
Journal of Systems and Software - Special issue: Applications of statistics in software engineering
The move to outsourced IT projects: key risks from the provider perspective
Proceedings of the 2005 ACM SIGMIS CPR conference on Computer personnel research
Critical risks in outsourced IT projects: the intractable and the unforeseen
Communications of the ACM - Entertainment networking
Proceedings of the 38th conference on Winter simulation
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Typically, IT projects are delivered over-budget and behind schedule. In this paper, we explore the effects of common project management practices that contribute to these problems and suggest a better alternative that can utilize resources more effectively. Our alternative approach uses (a) a thorough analysis of risks affecting activities in a project plan (i.e., the root factors leading to cost and time overruns), and (b) an optimization of the resources allocated to each activity in the project plan to maximize the probability of on time and within budget project completion. One key feature of our method is its capability to adapt and learn the risk factors affecting activities during the course of the project, enabling project managers to reallocate resources dynamically to ensure a better outcome given the updated risk profile. We use simulations to test the performance of our optimization algorithm and to gain insights into the benefits of adaptive re-planning.