Avoiding Irrelevant and Misleading Information When Estimating Development Effort

Authors:
Magne Jørgensen;Stein Grimstad
Affiliations:
Simula Research Laboratory;Simula Research Laboratory
Venue:
IEEE Software
Year:
2008

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Abstract

Software development effort estimates are reported to be highly inaccurate and systematically overly optimistic. Empirical evidence suggests that this problem is caused to some extent by the influence of irrelevant and misleading information—for example, information about the client's budget. The only effective way to eliminate this influence is to avoid exposure to such information. Other means, such formal effort estimation models, improved analysis of requirement specifications, and better selection of estimators, might have a positive effect but don't eliminate the influence. Proposed changes to the estimation process can help eliminate unnecessary information, leading to more realistic effort estimation.