Using Intelligent Optimization Methods to Improve the Group Method of Data Handling in Time Series Prediction

  • Authors:
  • Maysam Abbod;Karishma Deshpande

  • Affiliations:
  • School of Engineering and Design, Brunel University, West London, UK Uxbridge, UK UB8 3PH;School of Engineering and Design, Brunel University, West London, UK Uxbridge, UK UB8 3PH

  • Venue:
  • ICCS '08 Proceedings of the 8th international conference on Computational Science, Part III
  • Year:
  • 2008

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Abstract

In this paper we show how the performance of the basic algorithm of the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) can be improved using Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The new improved GMDH is then used to predict currency exchange rates: the US Dollar to the Euros. The performance of the hybrid GMDHs are compared with that of the conventional GMDH. Two performance measures, the root mean squared error and the mean absolute percentage errors show that the hybrid GMDH algorithm gives more accurate predictions than the conventional GMDH algorithm.