Perspectives on the theory and practice of belief functions
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
The nature of the unnormalized beliefs encountered in the transferable belief model
UAI '92 Proceedings of the eighth conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility
Fuzzy Sets and Systems
Cluster-based Specification Techniques in Dempster-Shafer Theory
ECSQARU '95 Proceedings of the European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning and Uncertainty
Decision making under uncertainty using imprecise probabilities
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Analyzing the combination of conflicting belief functions
Information Fusion
A definition of subjective possibility
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Utilizing belief functions for the estimation of future climate change
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Decision making in the TBM: the necessity of the pignistic transformation
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Elicitation, assessment, and pooling of expert judgments using possibility theory
IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems
Extending stochastic ordering to belief functions on the real line
Information Sciences: an International Journal
Multi-camera people tracking using evidential filters
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Hierarchical and conditional combination of belief functions induced by visual tracking
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Shape from silhouette using Dempster-Shafer theory
Pattern Recognition
Independence concepts in evidence theory
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Belief functions combination without the assumption of independence of the information sources
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Classifier fusion in the Dempster--Shafer framework using optimized t-norm based combination rules
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Continuous improvement through knowledge-guided analysis in experience feedback
Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence
Belief functions contextual discounting and canonical decompositions
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
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This paper examines the fusion of conflicting and not independent expert opinion in the Transferable Belief Model. A hierarchical fusion procedure based on the partition of experts into schools of thought is introduced, justified by the sociology of science concepts of epistemic communities and competing theories. Within groups, consonant beliefs are aggregated using the cautious conjunction operator, to pool together distinct streams of evidence without assuming that experts are independent. Across groups, the non-interactive disjunction is used, assuming that when several scientific theories compete, they cannot be all true at the same time, but at least one will remain. This procedure balances points of view better than averaging: the number of experts holding a view is not essential. This approach is illustrated with a 16 expert real-world dataset on climate sensitivity obtained in 1995. Climate sensitivity is a key parameter to assess the severity of the global warming issue. Comparing our findings with recent results suggests that the plausibility that sensitivity is small (below 1.5^oC) has decreased since 1995, while the plausibility that it is above 4.5^oC remains high.