Utilizing belief functions for the estimation of future climate change

Authors:
Elmar Kriegler;Hermann Held
Affiliations:
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Venue:
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Year:
2005

Citing 3
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Abstract

We apply belief functions to an analysis of future climate change. It is shown that the lower envelope of a set of probabilities bounded by cumulative probability distributions is a belief function. The large uncertainty about natural and socio-economic factors influencing estimates of future climate change is quantified in terms of bounds on cumulative probability. This information is used to construct a belief function for a simple climate change model, which then is projected onto an estimate of global mean warming in the 21st century. Results show that warming estimates on this basis can generate very imprecise uncertainty models.