Numerical models for the management of land and water resources salinisation
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation - Special issue: selection of papers presented at the MSSA/IMACS 11th biennial conference on modelling and simulation, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia, November 1995
Principle of information diffusion
Fuzzy Sets and Systems
Demonstration of benefit of information distribution for probability estimation
Signal Processing - Special issue on fuzzy logic in signal processing
An application of calculated fuzzy risk
Information Sciences—Informatics and Computer Science: An International Journal - Special issue: Intelligent information systems and applications
MULINO-DSS: a computer tool for sustainable use of water resources at the catchment scale
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation - Selected papers of the MSSANZ/IMACS 14th biennial conference on modelling and simulation
Analysis of an integrated model for assessing land and water policy options
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation - Special issue: Second special issue: Selected papers of the MSSANZ/IMACS 15th biennial conference on modelling and simulation
Fuzzy reliability analysis of deep sliding plane in rock foundation under dam
FSKD'09 Proceedings of the 6th international conference on Fuzzy systems and knowledge discovery - Volume 6
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A risk assessment model for water shortage is constructed using a risk analysis method based on the information diffusion theory. The application of this model is demonstrated in the city of Yiwu in Zhejiang Province, China. Based on the analytical results from a small sample, this study indicates that the present model is more stable and effective than the traditional model. Risk assessment results are used to analyze the carrying capacity of water resources from an ecological angle. For this study, the carrying capacity of water resources is defined as the maximum volume of water suitable for supporting human activity in certain stages of social development that can be borne by water resources under favorable ecological conditions. Further study on Yiwu is also performed, with results indicating that water shortages in this city are not related to types of water source, but can be classified in terms of water quality and conservation. To verify the results of theoretical investigation in this paper, the authors simulate changes in the carrying capacity of water resources under the conditions of future water management policies. This simulation uses the system dynamics (SD) model, based on the historical data collected by the city over the past 20 years and governmental plans to raise inhabitants' living standards between the present and 2020. The paper simultaneously indicates that both singularly pursuing fast economic development at the expense of the environment and promoting environmental protection via reduced economic development are undesirable for Yiwu. Simultaneously giving consideration to both the economic development and environmental protection is likely to produce better overall results. However, if the present water supply level is maintained but does not increase in the near future, Yiwu's water supply will be unable to satisfy requirements even under this scheme. In this case, the carrying capacity of water resources in the region can only be effectively improved by promoting more efficient use of water and water conservation schemes, as well as strengthening long-term investment in environmental protection.