An application of calculated fuzzy risk

Authors:
Huang Chongfu
Affiliations:
Institute of Resources Science, Beijing Normal University, No. 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing 100875, China and Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education ...
Venue:
Information Sciences—Informatics and Computer Science: An International Journal - Special issue: Intelligent information systems and applications
Year:
2002

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Abstract

In this paper, we use the interior-outer-set model to calculate the risk of crop flood and order farming alternatives for Huarong County, China, where only a small sample of eight observations is available. Any risk assessment from the data must be imprecise. The risk calculated by this suggested model is a particular case among imprecise probabilities, called possibility-probability distribution. We discuss in detail how to order alternatives based on a possibility-probability distribution. The result shows, aside subjective assessment, the fuzzy risk can also be calculated. The comparison shows that the ordering based on a calculated fuzzy risk is better than one based on a histogram estimate.