Stabilizing global mean surface temperature: A feedback control perspective

  • Authors:

  • Andrew Jarvis;David Leedal;C. James Taylor;Peter Young

  • Affiliations:

  • Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK;Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK;Engineering Department, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YR, UK;Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK and Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia and School of Electrical ...

  • Venue:
  • Environmental Modelling & Software
  • Year:
  • 2009

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Abstract

In this paper, we develop a discrete time, state variable feedback control regime to analyze the closed-loop properties associated with stabilizing the global mean surface temperature anomaly at 2^oC within a sequential decision making framework made up of 20 year review periods beginning in 2020. The design of the feedback control uses an optimal control approach that minimizes the peak deceleration of anthropogenic CO"2 emissions whilst avoiding overshooting the 2^oC target. The peak value for emissions deceleration that satisfies the closed-loop optimization was found to be linearly related to climate sensitivity and a climate sensitivity of 3.5^oC gave a deceleration of -1.9GtC/a/20 years^2. In addition to accounting for the predicted climate dynamics, the control system design includes a facility to emulate a robust corrective action in the face of uncertainty. The behavior of the overall control action is evaluated using an uncertainty scenario for climate model equilibrium sensitivity.