The nature of statistical learning theory
The nature of statistical learning theory
Training v-support vector regression: theory and algorithms
Neural Computation
Accurate on-line support vector regression
Neural Computation
Travel-time prediction with support vector regression
IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems
A Performance evaluation of neural network models in traffic volume forecasting
Mathematical and Computer Modelling: An International Journal
A novel self-organizing fuzzy rule-based system for modelling traffic flow behaviour
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Driving with knowledge from the physical world
Proceedings of the 17th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
Application of interval type-2 fuzzy neural networks to predict short-term traffic flow
International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology
An efficient CMAC neural network for stock index forecasting
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Short-Term traffic flow forecasting based on grey delay model
AICI'12 Proceedings of the 4th international conference on Artificial Intelligence and Computational Intelligence
Calibration of microsimulation traffic model using neural network approach
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Hi-index | 12.06 |
Most literature on short-term traffic flow forecasting focused mainly on normal, or non-incident, conditions and, hence, limited their applicability when traffic flow forecasting is most needed, i.e., incident and atypical conditions. Accurate prediction of short-term traffic flow under atypical conditions, such as vehicular crashes, inclement weather, work zone, and holidays, is crucial to effective and proactive traffic management systems in the context of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) and, more specifically, dynamic traffic assignment (DTA). To this end, this paper presents an application of a supervised statistical learning technique called Online Support Vector machine for Regression, or OL-SVR, for the prediction of short-term freeway traffic flow under both typical and atypical conditions. The OL-SVR model is compared with three well-known prediction models including Gaussian maximum likelihood (GML), Holt exponential smoothing, and artificial neural net models. The resultant performance comparisons suggest that GML, which relies heavily on the recurring characteristics of day-to-day traffic, performs slightly better than other models under typical traffic conditions, as demonstrated by previous studies. Yet OL-SVR is the best performer under non-recurring atypical traffic conditions. It appears that for deployed ITS systems that gear toward timely response to real-world atypical and incident situations, OL-SVR may be a better tool than GML.