Predicting (Individual) Software Productivity
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
Handbook of software reliability engineering
Handbook of software reliability engineering
A Critique of Software Defect Prediction Models
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
Predicting Fault Incidence Using Software Change History
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
Architecture-based approach to reliability assessment of software systems
Performance Evaluation
Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control
Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control
Rules and Tools for Software Evolution Planning and Management
Annals of Software Engineering
A Comparative Study of Predictive Models for Program Changes During System Testing and Maintenance
ICSM '93 Proceedings of the Conference on Software Maintenance
Understanding and predicting effort in software projects
Proceedings of the 25th International Conference on Software Engineering
Application of a Usage Profile in Software Quality Models
CSMR '99 Proceedings of the Third European Conference on Software Maintenance and Reengineering
Exploring Defect Data from Development and Customer Usage on Software Modules over Multiple Releases
ISSRE '98 Proceedings of the The Ninth International Symposium on Software Reliability Engineering
Empirical evaluation of defect projection models for widely-deployed production software systems
Proceedings of the 12th ACM SIGSOFT twelfth international symposium on Foundations of software engineering
Predictors of customer perceived software quality
Proceedings of the 27th international conference on Software engineering
Empirical Assessment of Machine Learning based Software Defect Prediction Techniques
WORDS '05 Proceedings of the 10th IEEE International Workshop on Object-Oriented Real-Time Dependable Systems
Software Defect Association Mining and Defect Correction Effort Prediction
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
A model and sensitivity analysis of the quality economics of defect-detection techniques
Proceedings of the 2006 international symposium on Software testing and analysis
Journal of Software Maintenance and Evolution: Research and Practice
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
Software Engineering
Information Technology and Management
Understanding evolution in Internetware using a double pyramids model
Proceedings of the Fourth Asia-Pacific Symposium on Internetware
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The Department of Information Systems, Statistics and Management Science, prediction of software defects and defect patterns is and will continue to be a critically important software evolution research topic. This study presents a time series analysis of multi-organizational multi-project defects reported during ongoing software evolution efforts. Using data from monthly defect reports for eight open source software projects over five years, this study builds and tests time series models for each sampled project. The resulting model accounts for the ripple effects of defect detection and correction by modeling the autocorrelation of code defect data. The autoregressive integrated moving average model (0,1,1) was found to hold for all sampled projects and thus provide a basis for both descriptive and predictive software defect analysis that is computationally efficient, comprehensible, and easy to apply. The model may be used to evaluate and compare the reliability of candidate software solutions, and to facilitate planning for software evolution budget and time allocation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.