A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

  • Authors:

  • Mohammed Mahmoud;Yuqiong Liu;Holly Hartmann;Steven Stewart;Thorsten Wagener;Darius Semmens;Robert Stewart;Hoshin Gupta;Damian Dominguez;Francina Dominguez;David Hulse;Rebecca Letcher;Brenda Rashleigh;Court Smith;Roger Street;Jenifer Ticehurst;Mark Twery;Hedwig van Delden;Ruth Waldick;Denis White;Larry Winter

  • Affiliations:

  • Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, 1133 E James Rogers Way, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States;Office of Hydrologic Development, NOAA National Weather Service, 1325 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910, United States;Arid Lands Information Center, 1955 E. 6th Street, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85719, United States;Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, 1133 E James Rogers Way, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States;Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 226B Sackett Building, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, United States;USGS Rocky Mountain Geographic Science Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS-516, DFC, Denver, CO 80225, United States;University of Tennessee, The Institute for Environmental Modeling, 569 Dabney Hall, 1416 Circle Drive, Knoxville, TN 37996-1610, United States;Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, 1133 E James Rogers Way, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States;Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Eawag, 8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland and Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland;Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, 1133 E James Rogers Way, Tucson, AZ 85721, United States;5234 Department of Landscape Architecture, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403-5234, United States;ICAM Building 48A, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia;US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory, 960 College Station Road, Athens, GA 30605, United States;Department of Anthropology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States;UKCIP-OUCE, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, United Kingdom;Integrated Catchment Assessment and Management Centre, Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Building 48A, Linnaeus Way, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia;Northern Research Station Program for USDA Forest Service, Science, Technology, and Applied Results, 705 Spear Street, South Burlington, VT 05403, United State;Research Institute for Knowledge Systems (RIKS), P.O. Box 463, 6200 AL Maastricht, The Netherlands;Environment Canda, 351 St. Joseph Boulevard, Place Vincent Massey, 8th Floor, Gatineau, Quebec, K1A 0H3, Canada;US Environmental Protection Agency, 200 SW 35th Street, Corvallis, OR 97333, United States;National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, United States

  • Venue:
  • Environmental Modelling & Software
  • Year:
  • 2009

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Abstract

Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community.