Measures of uncertainty in expert systems
Artificial Intelligence
Artificial Intelligence
Mediated Modeling: A System Dynamics Approach to Environmental Consensus Building
Mediated Modeling: A System Dynamics Approach to Environmental Consensus Building
The implications of complexity for integrated resources management
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
Parameterisation and evaluation of a Bayesian network for use in an ecological risk assessment
Environmental Modelling & Software
Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process - A framework and guidance
Environmental Modelling & Software
A new approach to testing an integrated water systems model using qualitative scenarios
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
Fuzzy knowledge-based model for soil condition assessment in Argentinean cropping systems
Environmental Modelling & Software
A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making
Environmental Modelling & Software
Probabilistic Networks and Expert Systems: Exact Computational Methods for Bayesian Networks
Probabilistic Networks and Expert Systems: Exact Computational Methods for Bayesian Networks
Elicitator: An expert elicitation tool for regression in ecology
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
"It was an artefact not the result": A note on systems dynamic model development tools
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
Position Paper: Modelling with stakeholders
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
A method for the analysis of assumptions in model-based environmental assessments
Environmental Modelling & Software
Development of a classification and decision-support tool for assessing lake hydromorphology
Environmental Modelling & Software
A group agreement-based approach for decision making in environmental issues
Environmental Modelling & Software
Building 'participation' upon critique: The Loweswater Care Project, Cumbria, UK
Environmental Modelling & Software
Bridging uncertain and ambiguous knowledge with imprecise probabilities
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
Eliciting fuzzy distributions from experts for ranking conceptual risk model components
Environmental Modelling & Software
A fuzzy GIS-based system to integrate local and technical knowledge in soil salinity monitoring
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
Editorial: A guide to expert opinion in environmental modelling and management
Environmental Modelling & Software
Eliciting fuzzy distributions from experts for ranking conceptual risk model components
Environmental Modelling & Software
Integrated environmental modeling: A vision and roadmap for the future
Environmental Modelling & Software
Position paper: Characterising performance of environmental models
Environmental Modelling & Software
Stakeholder driven update and improvement of a national water resources model
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
Commentary: What constitutes a good literature review and why does its quality matter?
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
Evaluating integrated assessment models of global climate change
Environmental Modelling & Software
Joint stakeholder decision-making on the management of the Silao-Romita aquifer using AHP
Environmental Modelling & Software
Short communication: A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
Why are decisions in flood disaster management so poorly supported by information from flood models?
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
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The inevitable though frequently informal use of expert opinion in modelling, the increasing number of models that incorporate formally expert opinion from a diverse range of experience and stakeholders, arguments for participatory modelling and analytic-deliberative-adaptive approaches to managing complex environmental problems, and an expanding but uneven literature prompt this critical review and analysis. Aims are to propose common definitions, identify and categorise existing concepts and practice, and provide a frame of reference and guidance for future environmental modelling. The extensive literature review and classification conducted demonstrate that a broad and inclusive definition of experts and expert opinion is both required and part of current practice. Thus an expert can be anyone with relevant and extensive or in-depth experience in relation to a topic of interest. The literature review also exposes informal model assumptions and modeller subjectivity, examines in detail the formal uses of expert opinion and expert systems, and critically analyses the main concepts of, and issues arising in, expert elicitation and the modelling of associated uncertainty. It is noted that model scrutiny and use of expert opinion in modelling will benefit from formal, systematic and transparent procedures that include as wide a range of stakeholders as possible. Enhanced awareness and utilisation of expert opinion is required for modelling that meets the informational needs of deliberative fora. These conclusions in no way diminish the importance of conventional science and scientific opinion but recognise the need for a paradigmatic shift from traditional ideals of unbiased and impartial experts towards unbiased processes of expert contestation and a plurality of expertise and eventually models. Priority must be given to the quality of the enquiry for those responsible for environmental management and policy formulation, and this review emphasises the role for science to maintain and enhance the rigour and formality of the information that informs decision making.