Regression Modeling Strategies
Regression Modeling Strategies
Eliciting density ratio classes
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Bridging uncertain and ambiguous knowledge with imprecise probabilities
Environmental Modelling & Software
Position Paper: The role of expert opinion in environmental modelling
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
Speedup of water distribution simulation by domain decomposition
Environmental Modelling & Software
Applying a validation framework to a working airport terminal model
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
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The presented approach aims to overcome the scarce data problem in service life modeling of water networks by combining subjective expert knowledge and local replacement data. A procedure to elicit imprecise quantile estimates of survival functions from experts, considering common cognitive biases, was developed and applied. The individual expert priors of the parameters of the service life distribution are obtained by regression over the stated distribution quantiles and aggregated into a single prior distribution. Furthermore, a likelihood function for the commonly encountered censored and truncated pipe replacement data is formulated. The suitability of the suggested Bayesian approach based on elicitation data from eight experts and real network data is demonstrated. Robust parameter estimates could be derived in data situations where frequentist maximum likelihood estimation is unsatisfactory, and to show how the consideration of imprecision and in-between-variance of experts improves posterior inference.