A hybrid statistical genetic-based demand forecasting expert system

Authors:
Hanaa E. Sayed;Hossam A. Gabbar;Shigeji Miyazaki
Affiliations:
Department of Intelligent Systems Engineering, Division of Industrial Innovation Science, Okayama University, 1-1 Tsushima Naka 3-chome, 700-8530 Okayama, Japan;Faculty of Energy Systems and Nuclear Science, UOIT, Ontario, Canada ON L1H 7K4;Department of Intelligent Systems Engineering, Division of Industrial Innovation Science, Okayama University, 1-1 Tsushima Naka 3-chome, 700-8530 Okayama, Japan
Venue:
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Year:
2009

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Abstract

Demand forecasting is considered a key factor for balancing risk of over-stocking and out-of-stock. It is the main input to supply chain processes affecting their performance. Even with much effort and funds spent to improve supply chain processes, they still lack reliability and efficiency if the demand forecast accuracy is poor. This paper presents a proposal of an integrated model of statistical methods and improved genetic algorithm to generate better demand forecast accuracy. An improved genetic algorithm is used to choose the best weights among the statistical methods and to optimize the forecasted activities combinations that maximize profit. A case study is presented using different product types. And, a comparison is conducted between results obtained from the proposed model and from traditional statistical methods, which demonstrates improved forecast accuracy using the proposed model for all time series types.