Risk identification and assessment for build-operate-transfer projects: A fuzzy multi attribute decision making model

Authors:
Sadoullah Ebrahimnejad;Seyed Meysam Mousavi;Hamed Seyrafianpour
Affiliations:
Department of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Karaj Branch, Rajaee Shahr, P.O. Box 31485/313, Karaj, Iran;Department of Industrial Engineering, Postgraduate Engineering Center, Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch, No. 209, North Iranshahr St., P.O. Box 11365/4435, Tehran, Iran;Department of Executive Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hesarak St., P.O. Box 14155/4933, Tehran, Iran
Venue:
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Year:
2010

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Abstract

In recent years, BOT approach has provided an increasingly popular project financing to move toward infrastructure development in Asian countries such as Iran. There are many complexities in projects because of the variety of factors in project's trend and also the dependence of project on mainly national factors. Due to these complexities and their long-term operating, the projects meet with uncertainty and numerous risks. In this paper, an attempt is made at identifying common risks in BOT projects. A novel hierarchical structure of risks is presented on the basis of the project-oriented point of view; next, some effective criteria for risk ranking in BOT projects are introduced. Then, the problem is defined in Fuzzy Multi Attribute Decision Making (FMADM) field. Therefore, Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS) and Fuzzy Linear Programming Technique for Multidimensional Analysis of Preference (FLINMAP) methods are presented in order to rank high risks in BOT projects. In this study, these two methods are compared in four respects: separation among alternatives, fuzzy error in criteria's weights, risk response planning, and numerousness of alternatives in proportion to criteria. The proposed model is used for identifying and assessing risks in Iran BOT power plant project. Finally, the rankings of high risks are determined according to their results at the end of this paper.