Risk assessment for highway projects using jackknife technique

Authors:
S. M. Mousavi;R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam;A. Azaron;S. M. H. Mojtahedi;H. Hashemi
Affiliations:
Department of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran;Department of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran;Michael Smurfit Graduate School of Business, University College Dublin, Blackrock, Co. Dublin, Ireland and Department of Financial Engineering and Engineering Management, School of Science and Eng ...;School of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University - South Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran;Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran
Venue:
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Year:
2011

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Abstract

Risk assessment in highway projects has been investigated extensively; however, it is still comparatively neglected for this process with a non-parametric jackknife technique. Highway projects' data and experts' remarks in developing countries are small and limited; moreover, statistical distributions of parameters which play significant role in the projects are usually unknown. Therefore, common approaches cannot assist such kind of problems remarkably. To mitigate the foregoing issues in highway projects, the non-parametric jackknife resampling technique is applied in this paper. Risks are first ranked with a common technique, and then those risks will be ranked with the jackknife technique. The final rankings are conducive to some rewarding results, such as reduction of standard deviation and normality of data. Furthermore, the common risk ranking and jackknife risk ranking are compared in detail and illustrated with the risk data from a highway project, and also compared with the normal probability plot.