Fuzzy Delphi and back-propagation model for sales forecasting in PCB industry

Authors:
Pei-Chann Chang;Yen-Wen Wang
Affiliations:
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Yuan-Ze University, 135 Yuan-Dong Road, ChungLi, Taoyuan 32026, Taiwan, ROC;Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Chin-Yun University, 229 Chien-Hsin Road, ChungLi, Taoyuan 320, Taiwan, ROC
Venue:
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Year:
2006

Citing 6
Cited 34

Handling forecasting problems using fuzzy time series

Fuzzy Sets and Systems
A decision support system for sales forecasting through fuzzy neural networks with asymmetric fuzzy weights

Decision Support Systems
Fuzzy Mathematical Models in Engineering and Management Science

Fuzzy Mathematical Models in Engineering and Management Science
Evolving neural network for printed circuit board sales forecasting

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
A hybrid system combining self-organizing maps with case-based reasoning in wholesaler's new-release book forecasting

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
The fuzzy Delphi method via fuzzy statistics and membership function fitting and an application to the human resources

Fuzzy Sets and Systems

A TSK type fuzzy rule based system for stock price prediction

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Back-propagation neural network based importance-performance analysis for determining critical service attributes

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
A fuzzy case-based reasoning model for sales forecasting in print circuit board industries

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
A decision support system for supplier selection based on a strategy-aligned fuzzy SMART approach

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
A type-2 fuzzy rule-based expert system model for stock price analysis

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Sales forecasting using extreme learning machine with applications in fashion retailing

Decision Support Systems
Evaluating the process of a genetic algorithm to improve the back-propagation network: A Monte Carlo study

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Evolving and clustering fuzzy decision tree for financial time series data forecasting

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Fuzzy neural based importance-performance analysis for determining critical service attributes

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
A generalized fuzzy approach for strategic problems: The empirical study on facility location selection of authors' management consultation client as an example

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Gray relation analysis and multilayer functional link network sales forecasting model for perishable food in convenience store

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
A neural network with a case based dynamic window for stock trading prediction

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
A fuzzy back propagation network ensemble with example classification for lot output time prediction in a wafer fab

Applied Soft Computing
Six-Sigma project selection using national quality award criteria and Delphi fuzzy multiple criteria decision-making method

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Enhancing the efficacy of supplier selection decision-making on the initial stage of new product development: A hybrid fuzzy approach considering the strategic and operational factors simultaneously

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Data clustering and fuzzy neural network for sales forecasting: A case study in printed circuit board industry

Knowledge-Based Systems
A Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model for Selecting the Distribution Center Location in China: A Taiwanese Manufacturer's Perspective

Proceedings of the Symposium on Human Interface 2009 on Human Interface and the Management of Information. Information and Interaction. Part II: Held as part of HCI International 2009
Integrating a piecewise linear representation method and a neural network model for stock trading points prediction

IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part C: Applications and Reviews
Forecasting demand of commodities after natural disasters

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Review article: A review of soft computing applications in supply chain management

Applied Soft Computing
An ensemble of neural networks for stock trading decision making

ICIC'09 Proceedings of the Intelligent computing 5th international conference on Emerging intelligent computing technology and applications
The construction of a comprehensive model for production strategy evaluation

Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making
A hybrid model combining case-based reasoning and fuzzy decision tree for medical data classification

Applied Soft Computing
Sales forecasting system based on Gray extreme learning machine with Taguchi method in retail industry

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Genetic relation algorithm with guided mutation for the large-scale portfolio optimization

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Integration of similarity measurement and dynamic SVM for electrically evoked potentials prediction in visual prostheses research

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Electrical evoked potentials prediction model in visual prostheses based on support vector regression with multiple weights

Applied Soft Computing
Accounting for dynamics in attribute-importance and for competitor performance to enhance reliability of BPNN-based importance-performance analysis

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Forecasting of manufacturing cost in mobile phone products by case-based reasoning and artificial neural network models

Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing
Sales forecasting for computer wholesalers: A comparison of multivariate adaptive regression splines and artificial neural networks

Decision Support Systems
A new fuzzy functions model tuned by hybridizing imperialist competitive algorithm and simulated annealing. Application: Stock price prediction

Information Sciences: an International Journal
Case based time series prediction using biased time warp distance for electrical evoked potential forecasting in visual prostheses

Applied Soft Computing
Analysing network uncertainty for industrial product-service delivery: A hybrid fuzzy approach

Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Improving project-profit prediction using a two-stage forecasting system

Computers and Industrial Engineering

Quantified Score

Hi-index	12.08

Visualization

Abstract

Reliable prediction of sales can improve the quality of business strategy. In this research, fuzzy logic and artificial neural network are integrated into the fuzzy back-propagation network (FBPN) for sales forecasting in Printed Circuit Board (PCB) industry. The fuzzy back propagation network is constructed to incorporate production-control expert judgments in enhancing the model's performance. Parameters chosen as inputs to the FBPN are no longer considered as of equal importance, but some sales managers and production control experts are requested to express their opinions about the importance of each input parameter in predicting the sales with linguistic terms, which can be converted into pre-specified fuzzy numbers. The proposed system is evaluated through the real world data provided by a printed circuit board company and experimental results indicate that the Fuzzy back-propagation approach outperforms other three different forecasting models in MAPE measures.