New product development: the performance and time-to-market tradeoff
Management Science
Quality and Time-to-Market Trade-offs when There Are Multiple Product Generations
Manufacturing & Service Operations Management
New-Product Strategy and Industry Clockspeed
Management Science
Optimization of Influenza Vaccine Selection
Operations Research
Supply Chain Coordination and Influenza Vaccination
Operations Research
Selecting a Portfolio of Suppliers Under Demand and Supply Risks
Operations Research
Uncertainty, Information Acquisition, and Technology Adoption
Operations Research
Cournot Competition Under Yield Uncertainty: The Case of the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Market
Manufacturing & Service Operations Management
Advance Selling in a Supply Chain Under Uncertain Supply and Demand
Manufacturing & Service Operations Management
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The Vaccine and Related Biologic Products Advisory Committee meets at least once a year to decide the composition of seasonal influenza vaccine in the United States. Past evidence suggests that the committee could use a more systematic approach to incorporate observed information and to quantify the risks associated with different options. There are two key trade-offs involved in this decision. First, if the Committee decides to retain the current vaccine composition instead of updating to a new one, there is lower uncertainty in production yields, but the current vaccine could be less effective if a new virus strain spreads. Second, if the Committee decides early with less information, then manufacturers have more production time, but the reduced information increases the risk of choosing a wrong strain. We derive an optimal dynamic policy for this decision. Because of the greater uncertainty in production yields of new vaccines, the optimal thresholds are neither symmetric between retaining and updating the composition nor monotonic over time. We apply our model to past decisions using parameter values estimated from a historical case. Our analysis shows that the dynamic optimal policy can significantly improve social welfare.