Discrete Mathematics
Optimization of Influenza Vaccine Selection
Operations Research
Convexity and decomposition of mean-risk stochastic programs
Mathematical Programming: Series A and B
Optimization of Convex Risk Functions
Mathematics of Operations Research
Supply Chain Coordination and Influenza Vaccination
Operations Research
Simple Models of Influenza Progression Within a Heterogeneous Population
Operations Research
Cournot Competition Under Yield Uncertainty: The Case of the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Market
Manufacturing & Service Operations Management
The Optimal Composition of Influenza Vaccines Subject to Random Production Yields
Manufacturing & Service Operations Management
On deviation measures in stochastic integer programming
Operations Research Letters
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Seasonal influenza is a major public health concern, and the first line of defense is the flu shot. Antigenic drifts and the high rate of influenza transmission require annual updates to the flu shot composition. The World Health Organization recommends which flu strains to include in the annual vaccine, based on surveillance and epidemiological analysis. There are two critical decisions regarding the flu shot design. One is its composition; currently, three strains constitute the flu shot, and they influence vaccine effectiveness. Another critical decision is the timing of the composition decisions, which affects the flu shot production. Both of these decisions have to be made under uncertainty many months before the flu season starts. We quantify the trade-offs involved through a multistage stochastic mixed-integer program that determines the optimal flu shot composition and its timing in a stochastic and dynamic environment.We incorporate risk sensitivity through mean-risk models. Our results provide valuable insights for pressing policy issues.