Risk analysis models and risk degree determination in new product development: A case study

Authors:
Hoo-Gon Choi;Jungon Ahn
Affiliations:
Department of Systems Management Engineering, Sungkyunkwan University, 300 Cheoncheon-dong, Jangan-gu, Suwon, Republic of Korea;Department of Systems Management Engineering, Sungkyunkwan University, 300 Cheoncheon-dong, Jangan-gu, Suwon, Republic of Korea
Venue:
Journal of Engineering and Technology Management
Year:
2010

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Abstract

This paper proposes a risk analysis model to determine the risk degrees of the risk factors occurring in product development processes. The model uses both fuzzy theory and Markov processes on a concurrent engineering (CE) basis. Fuzzy models determine the impact values of the risk factors, and Markov processes determine the probability of risk occurrences. The analysis model is used to compute the risk degrees by multiplying the probability of risk occurrences by the impact value. This study can be utilized for analyzing the influences of risk factors on product development projects and will contribute toward the development of a risk management framework (RMF) to defend against various risk factors. Implications and directions for future research are discussed.