Electric load forecasting based on locally weighted support vector regression

Authors:
Ehab E. Elattar;John Goulermas;Q. H. Wu
Affiliations:
Department of Electrical Engineering and Electronics, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK and Department of Electrical Engineering, Minufiya University, Shebin El-Kom, Egypt;Department of Electrical Engineering and Electronics, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK;Department of Electrical Engineering and Electronics, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
Venue:
IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part C: Applications and Reviews
Year:
2010

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Abstract

The forecasting of electricity demand has become one of the major research fields in electrical engineering. Accurately estimated forecasts are essential part of an efficient power system planning and operation. In this paper, a modified version of the support vector regression (SVR) is presented to solve the load forecasting problem. The proposed model is derived by modifying the risk function of the SVR algorithm with the use of locally weighted regression (LWR) while keeping the regularization term in its original form. In addition, the weighted distance algorithm based on the Mahalanobis distance for optimizing the weighting function's bandwidth is proposed to improve the accuracy of the algorithm. The performance of the new model is evaluated with two real-world datasets, and compared with the local SVR and some published models using the same datasets. The results show that the proposed model exhibits superior performance compare to that of LWR, local SVR, and other published models.