Fuzzy time series and its models
Fuzzy Sets and Systems
Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series—part I
Fuzzy Sets and Systems
Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series—part II
Fuzzy Sets and Systems
A comparison of fuzzy forecasting and Markov modeling
Fuzzy Sets and Systems
Forecasting enrollments based on fuzzy time series
Fuzzy Sets and Systems
Handling forecasting problems using fuzzy time series
Fuzzy Sets and Systems
Hidden Markov models with states depending on observations
Pattern Recognition Letters
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Deterministic fuzzy time series model for forecasting enrollments
Computers & Mathematics with Applications
Prediction of uncertain structural responses using fuzzy time series
Computers and Structures
AN ENHANCED DETERMINISTIC FUZZY TIME SERIES FORECASTING MODEL
Cybernetics and Systems
Fuzzy relation analysis in fuzzy time series model
Computers & Mathematics with Applications
Temperature prediction using fuzzy time series
IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part B: Cybernetics
A Multivariate Heuristic Model for Fuzzy Time-Series Forecasting
IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part B: Cybernetics
Handling forecasting problems based on two-factors high-order fuzzy time series
IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems
A hybrid intelligent system of ANFIS and CAPM for stock portfolio optimization
Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems: Applications in Engineering and Technology
Hi-index | 0.01 |
Recently, fuzzy time series have attracted more academic attention than traditional time series due to their capability of dealing with the uncertainty and vagueness inherent in the data collected. The formulation of fuzzy relations is one of the key issues affecting forecasting results. Most of the present works adopt IF-THEN rules for relationship representation, which leads to higher computational overhead and rule redundancy. Sullivan and Woodall proposed a Markov-based formulation and a forecasting model to reduce computational overhead; however, its applicability is limited to handling one-factor problems. In this paper, we propose a novel forecasting model based on the hidden Markov model by enhancing Sullivan and Woodall's work to allow handling of two-factor forecasting problems. Moreover, in order to make the nature of conjecture and randomness of forecasting more realistic, the Monte Carlo method is adopted to estimate the outcome. To test the effectiveness of the resulting stochastic model, we conduct two experiments and compare the results with those from other models. The first experiment consists of forecasting the daily average temperature and cloud density in Taipei, Taiwan, and the second experiment is based on the Taiwan Weighted Stock Index by forecasting the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar against the U.S. dollar. In addition to improving forecasting accuracy, the proposed model adheres to the central limit theorem, and thus, the result statistically approximates to the real mean of the target value being forecast.