Deterministic fuzzy time series model for forecasting enrollments

  • Authors:

  • Sheng-Tun Li;Yi-Chung Cheng

  • Affiliations:

  • Institute of Information Management, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan, ROC and Department of Industrial and Information Management, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan, ROC;Department of Industrial and Information Management, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan, ROC and Department of International Trade, Tainan University of Technology, Taiwan, ROC

  • Venue:
  • Computers & Mathematics with Applications
  • Year:
  • 2007

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Abstract

The fuzzy time series has recently received increasing attention because of its capability of dealing with vague and incomplete data. There have been a variety of models developed to either improve forecasting accuracy or reduce computation overhead. However, the issues of controlling uncertainty in forecasting, effectively partitioning intervals, and consistently achieving forecasting accuracy with different interval lengths have been rarely investigated. This paper proposes a novel deterministic forecasting model to manage these crucial issues. In addition, an important parameter, the maximum length of subsequence in a fuzzy time series resulting in a certain state, is deterministically quantified. Experimental results using the University of Alabama's enrollment data demonstrate that the proposed forecasting model outperforms the existing models in terms of accuracy, robustness, and reliability. Moreover, the forecasting model adheres to the consistency principle that a shorter interval length leads to more accurate results.