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What's in a hashtag?: content based prediction of the spread of ideas in microblogging communities
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SocialSensor: sensing user generated input for improved media discovery and experience
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Dynamic selection of activation targets to boost the influence spread in social networks
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Conversations reconstruction in the social web
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A predictive model for the temporal dynamics of information diffusion in online social networks
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Predicting information diffusion on social networks with partial knowledge
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Social media forms a central domain for the production and dissemination of real-time information. Even though such flows of information have traditionally been thought of as diffusion processes over social networks, the underlying phenomena are the result of a complex web of interactions among numerous participants. Here we develop the Linear Influence Model where rather than requiring the knowledge of the social network and then modeling the diffusion by predicting which node will influence which other nodes in the network, we focus on modeling the global influence of a node on the rate of diffusion through the (implicit) network. We model the number of newly infected nodes as a function of which other nodes got infected in the past. For each node we estimate an influence function that quantifies how many subsequent infections can be attributed to the influence of that node over time. A nonparametric formulation of the model leads to a simple least squares problem that can be solved on large datasets. We validate our model on a set of 500 million tweets and a set of 170 million news articles and blog posts. We show that the Linear Influence Model accurately models influences of nodes and reliably predicts the temporal dynamics of information diffusion. We find that patterns of influence of individual participants differ significantly depending on the type of the node and the topic of the information.