Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators
Neural Networks
Learning internal representations by error propagation
Parallel distributed processing: explorations in the microstructure of cognition, vol. 1
An overview of neural networks: early models to real world systems
An introduction to neural and electronic networks
An investigation of the use of feedforward neural networks for forecasting
An investigation of the use of feedforward neural networks for forecasting
Practical neural network recipes in C++
Practical neural network recipes in C++
Neural networks: applications in industry, business and science
Communications of the ACM
Recognizing business cycle turning points by means of a neural network
Computational Economics
Genetic Algorithms in Search, Optimization and Machine Learning
Genetic Algorithms in Search, Optimization and Machine Learning
Genetic Algorithms and Manufacturing Systems Design
Genetic Algorithms and Manufacturing Systems Design
Detecting business cycle asymmetries using artificial neural networks and time series models
Computational Economics
Neural Computation
An Abductive-Reasoning Guide for Finance Practitioners
Computational Economics
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In this study, a highly flexible form of nonlinear time series models called artificial neural networks (ANNs) are employed to predict fluctuations in economic activity in selected members (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan) of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) using macroeconomic time series [treasury bill rate (T-bill), long term bond rate (BondLT), money supply (MS), industrial production (IP), spread (10-year treasury bond rate less 3-month treasury bill rate), BRTB (bank rate less 3-month treasury bill rate), and GDP growth rate]. Forecasting recessions being very important though challenging, recessions in the selected countries are modeled recursively 1---10 quarters ahead out-of-sample using ANNs in conjunction with macroeconomic time series for all the countries. The out-of-sample forecast results show that in general no single macroeconomic variable employed appears to be useful for predicting recessions in any of the series. However, for Armenia, the treasury bill rate, industrial production, money supply, and the spread (the yield curve) are candidate variables for predicting recessions 1---10 quarters ahead. For Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, the treasury bill rate and money supply series are candidate variables for predicting recessions 1---10 quarters ahead.