On the self-similar nature of Ethernet traffic (extended version)
IEEE/ACM Transactions on Networking (TON)
IEEE Transactions on Computers
Web server workload characterization: the search for invariants
Proceedings of the 1996 ACM SIGMETRICS international conference on Measurement and modeling of computer systems
Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control
Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
The Vision of Autonomic Computing
Computer
Time Series Models for Internet Data Traffic
LCN '99 Proceedings of the 24th Annual IEEE Conference on Local Computer Networks
Feedback Control with Queueing-Theoretic Prediction for Relative Delay Guarantees in Web Servers
RTAS '03 Proceedings of the The 9th IEEE Real-Time and Embedded Technology and Applications Symposium
Performance by unified model analysis (PUMA)
Proceedings of the 5th international workshop on Software and performance
Hierarchical model-based autonomic control of software systems
DEAS '05 Proceedings of the 2005 workshop on Design and evolution of autonomic application software
The Use of Optimal Filters to Track Parameters of Performance Models
QEST '05 Proceedings of the Second International Conference on the Quantitative Evaluation of Systems
Adaptive Learning of Metric Correlations for Temperature-Aware Database Provisioning
ICAC '07 Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Autonomic Computing
Performance Model Estimation and Tracking Using Optimal Filters
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
A journey to highly dynamic, self-adaptive service-based applications
Automated Software Engineering
Service System Resource Management Based on a Tracked Layered Performance Model
ICAC '06 Proceedings of the 2006 IEEE International Conference on Autonomic Computing
Workload Analysis and Demand Prediction of Enterprise Data Center Applications
IISWC '07 Proceedings of the 2007 IEEE 10th International Symposium on Workload Characterization
Enhanced Modeling and Solution of Layered Queueing Networks
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
Self-adaptive and sensitivity-aware QoS modeling for the cloud
Proceedings of the 8th International Symposium on Software Engineering for Adaptive and Self-Managing Systems
Regression-based utilization prediction algorithms: an empirical investigation
CASCON '13 Proceedings of the 2013 Conference of the Center for Advanced Studies on Collaborative Research
Indirect estimation of service demands in the presence of structural changes
Performance Evaluation
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Adaptive management of a software service system can take advantage of a performance model which can predict the effect of proposed changes, before they are deployed. As the system varies over time the model parameters can be tracked by an estimator such as a Kalman Filter, so that decisions can be updated. The filter is valuable when parameters are 'hidden' and cannot be directly measured without excessive cost (as is usually the case for the CPU time of a service). Because there may be significant delays in some management control actions (especially in deploying a new replica of a service), it is also important to be able to predict the changes ahead somewhat in time, that is, to predict the trends. The trend predictor itself needs to be estimated from observed trends in the model parameters. This work uses an autoregressive model for trend prediction and integrates it with the parameter estimator, in a single Kalman Filter, using auxiliary states for the parameter evolution process. This paper describes how the trend model is constructed, and evaluates its effectiveness. It compares the overall performance predictions to a simpler trend predictor using linear extrapolation of the fitted parameter time-series, which turns out to be almost as good. The approach is validated on a real system running a benchmark web application.