Latin hypercube sampling as a tool in uncertainty analysis of computer models
WSC '92 Proceedings of the 24th conference on Winter simulation
Global sensitivity indices for nonlinear mathematical models and their Monte Carlo estimates
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation - IMACS sponsored Special issue on the second IMACS seminar on Monte Carlo methods
Winding Stairs: A sampling tool to compute sensitivity indices
Statistics and Computing
Sensitivity Analysis in Practice: A Guide to Assessing Scientific Models
Sensitivity Analysis in Practice: A Guide to Assessing Scientific Models
Cooperation and quality in wikipedia
Proceedings of the 2007 international symposium on Wikis
Preferential behavior in online groups
WSDM '08 Proceedings of the 2008 International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining
Strong regularities in online peer production
Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Microscopic evolution of social networks
Proceedings of the 14th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
Survival analysis in open development projects
FLOSS '09 Proceedings of the 2009 ICSE Workshop on Emerging Trends in Free/Libre/Open Source Software Research and Development
Socialization tactics in wikipedia and their effects
Proceedings of the 2010 ACM conference on Computer supported cooperative work
Beyond Wikipedia: coordination and conflict in online production groups
Proceedings of the 2010 ACM conference on Computer supported cooperative work
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Commons-based peer production does seem to rest upon a paradox. Although users produce all contents, at the same time participation is commonly on a voluntary basis, and largely incentivized by achievement of project's goals. This means that users have to coordinate their actions and goals, in order to keep themselves from leaving. While this situation is easily explainable for small groups of highly committed, like-minded individuals, little is known about large-scale, heterogeneous projects, such as Wikipedia. In this contribution we present a model of peer production in a large online community. The model features a dynamic population of bounded confidence users, and an endogenous process of user departure. Using global sensitivity analysis, we identify the most important parameters affecting the lifespan of user participation. We find that the model presents two distinct regimes, and that the shift between them is governed by the bounded confidence parameter. For low values of this parameter, users depart almost immediately. For high values, however, the model produces a bimodal distribution of user lifespan. These results suggest that user participation to online communities could be explained in terms of group consensus, and provide a novel connection between models of opinion dynamics and commons-based peer production.