From qualitative to quantitative probabilistic networks

Authors:
Silja Renooij;Linda C. van der Gaag
Affiliations:
Institute of Information and Computing Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands;Institute of Information and Computing Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
Venue:
UAI'02 Proceedings of the Eighteenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Year:
2002

Citing 7
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Abstract

Quantification is well known to be a major obstacle in the construction of a probabilistic network, especially when relying on human experts for this purpose. The construction of a qualitative probabilistic network has been proposed as an initial step in a network's quantification, since the qualitative network can be used to gain preliminary insight in the projected network's reasoning behaviour. We extend on this idea and present a new type of network in which both signs and numbers are specified; we further present an associated algorithm for probabilistic inference. Building upon these semi-qualitative networks, a probabilistic network can be quantified and studied in a stepwise manner. As a result, modelling inadequacies can be detected and amended at an early stage in the quantification process.