Inference with separately specified sets of probabilities in credal networks

  • Authors:
  • José Carlos Ferreira da Rocha;Fabio Gagliardi Cozman

  • Affiliations:
  • Escola Politcnica, Univ. de São Paulo and Univ. Estadual de Ponta Grossa, Ponta Grossa, PR Brazil;Escola Politécnica, Univ. de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil

  • Venue:
  • UAI'02 Proceedings of the Eighteenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
  • Year:
  • 2002

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Abstract

We present new algorithms for inference in credal networks -- directed acyclic graphs associated with sets of probabilities. Credal networks are here interpreted as encoding strong independence relations among variables. We first present a theory of credal networks based on separately specified sets of probabilities. We also show that inference with polytrees is NP-hard in this setting. We then introduce new techniques that reduce the computational effort demanded by inference, particularly in polytrees, by exploring separability of credal sets.