Belief rule-based methodology for mapping consumer preferences and setting product targets

  • Authors:
  • Jian-Bo Yang;Ying-Ming Wang;Dong-Ling Xu;Kwai-Sang Chin;Liam Chatton

  • Affiliations:
  • Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester, Manchester M15 6PB, UK;School of Public Administration, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350002, PR China;Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester, Manchester M15 6PB, UK;Department of MEEM, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong;Aromco Ltd., Bell Farm Industrial Park, Hertfordshire SG8 8ND, UK

  • Venue:
  • Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
  • Year:
  • 2012

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Abstract

Rapid and accurate identification of consumer demands and systematic assessment of product quality are essential to success for new product development, in particular for fast moving consumer goods such as food and drink products. This paper reports an investigation into a belief rule-based (BRB) methodology for quality assessment, target setting and consumer preference prediction in retro-fit design of food and drink products. The BRB methodology can be used to represent the relationships between consumer preferences and product attributes, which are complicated and nonlinear. A BRB system can initially be established using expert knowledge and then optimally trained and validated using data generated from consumer or expert panel assessments or from tests and experiments. The established BRBs can then be used to predict the consumer acceptance of new products or set product target values in retro-fit design. The proposed BRB methodology is applied to the design of a lemonade drink product using real data provided by a sensory product manufacturer in the UK. The results show that the BRB methodology can be used to predict consumer preferences with high accuracy and to set optimal target values for product quality improvement.