Applying Bayesian networks to performance forecast of innovation projects: A case study of transformational leadership influence in organizations oriented by projects

Authors:
Marco A. de Oliveira;Osmar Possamai;Luiz V. O. Dalla Valentina;Carlos A. Flesch
Affiliations:
Dep. de Engenharia de Produção e Sistemas, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, 88040-970 Florianópolis, SC, Brazil;Dep. de Engenharia de Produção e Sistemas, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, 88040-970 Florianópolis, SC, Brazil;Dep. de Engenharia Mecínica, Universidade do Estado de Santa Catarina, 89219-710 Joinville, SC, Brazil and Dep. de Pesquisa, Sociedade Educacional de Santa Catarina, 89203-400 Joinville, SC, ...;Dep. de Engenharia Mecínica, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, 88040-970 Florianópolis, SC, Brazil
Venue:
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Year:
2012

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Abstract

The focus of this work is the analysis of the influence of transformational leadership on organizational factors, and their impacts on the project performance. The factors considered are communication, flexibility, continuous delivery and continuous improvement, overlap of activities, and maturity of the team, in projects with a high degree of innovation. Bayesian networks were chosen as a simulation tool. Results showed that for a moderate level of overlap of activities, the maximum project performance is obtained when the leadership components individual consideration, inspirational motivation, idealized influence and intellectual stimulation, are either at moderate levels. This leads to high levels of team maturity, flexibility and continuous delivery, while continuous improvement and communication tend to be moderate. It is highlighted the characterization of the individual contribution of the variables to the project performance and the empirical application of Bayesian networks, as an alternative to statistical methods commonly employed in leadership and management studies.