Advanced topics in information resources management
Dynamic Portfolio Selection of NPD Programs Using Marginal Returns
Management Science
Evidence-Based Guidelines for Assessment of Software Development Cost Uncertainty
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
On the Value of Flexibility in R&D Projects
Management Science
Journal of Management Information Systems
Delayed multiattribute product differentiation
Decision Support Systems
Proceedings of the 39th conference on Winter simulation: 40 years! The best is yet to come
A proposal for an integrated assessment and selection method for a research and development project
ISTASC'06 Proceedings of the 6th WSEAS International Conference on Systems Theory & Scientific Computation
Fuzzy multicriteria R&D project selection with a real options valuation model
Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems: Applications in Engineering and Technology - Fuzzy theory and technology with applications
Computers & Mathematics with Applications
Target Age and the Acquisition of Innovation in High-Technology Industries
Management Science
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Evaluate IT Investment Opportunities Using Real Options Theory
Information Resources Management Journal
Large scale portfolio selection with synergies
Journal of Computer and Systems Sciences International
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Managerial flexibility has value in the context of uncertain R&D projects, as management can repeatedly gather information about uncertain project and market characteristics and, based on this information, change its course of action. This value is now well accepted and referred to as "real option value." We introduce, in addition to the familiar real option of abandonment, the option of corrective action that management can take during the project. The intuition from options pricing theory is that higher uncertainty in project payoffs increases the real option value of managerial decision flexibility. However, R&D managers face uncertainty not only in payoffs, but also from many other sources. We identify five example types of R&D uncertainty, in market payoffs, project budgets, product performance, market requirements, and project schedules. How do they influence the value from managerial flexibility? We find that if uncertainty is resolved or costs/revenues occurafter all decisions have been made, more variability may "smear out" contingencies and thus reduce the value of flexibility. In addition, variability may reduce the probability of flexibility ever being exercised, which also reduces its value. This result runs counter to established option pricing theory intuition and contributes to a better risk management in R&D projects. Our model builds intuition for R&D managers as to when it is and when it is not worthwhile to delay commitments--for example, by postponing a design freeze, thus maintaining flexibility in R&D projects.