Hydrologic models for emergency decision support using bayesian networks

  • Authors:
  • Martin Molina;Raquel Fuentetaja;Luis Garrote

  • Affiliations:
  • Departamento de Inteligencia Artificial, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain;Departamento de Informática, Universidad de Carlos III, Madrid, Spain;Departamento de Ingeniería Civil: Hidráulica y Energética, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain

  • Venue:
  • ECSQARU'05 Proceedings of the 8th European conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty
  • Year:
  • 2005

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Abstract

In the presence of a river flood, operators in charge of control must take decisions based on imperfect and incomplete sources of information (e.g., data provided by a limited number sensors) and partial knowledge about the structure and behavior of the river basin. This is a case of reasoning about a complex dynamic system with uncertainty and real-time constraints where bayesian networks can be used to provide an effective support. In this paper we describe a solution with spatio-temporal bayesian networks to be used in a context of emergencies produced by river floods. In the paper we describe first a set of types of causal relations for hydrologic processes with spatial and temporal references to represent the dynamics of the river basin. Then we describe how this was included in a computer system called SAIDA to provide assistance to operators in charge of control in a river basin. Finally the paper shows experimental results about the performance of the model.