COCOMO-U: an extension of COCOMO II for cost estimation with uncertainty

Authors:
Da Yang;Yuxiang Wan;Zinan Tang;Shujian Wu;Mei He;Mingshu Li
Affiliations:
Laboratory for Internet Software Technologies, Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;Laboratory for Internet Software Technologies, Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;Laboratory for Internet Software Technologies, Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;Laboratory for Internet Software Technologies, Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;Laboratory for Internet Software Technologies, Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;Laboratory for Internet Software Technologies, Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Venue:
SPW/ProSim'06 Proceedings of the 2006 international conference on Software Process Simulation and Modeling
Year:
2006

Citing 11
Cited 4

Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference

Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference
Software Cost Estimation with Cocomo II with Cdrom

Software Cost Estimation with Cocomo II with Cdrom
Estimates, Uncertainty, and Risk

IEEE Software
A Causal Model for Software Cost Estimating Error

IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
On the Sensitivity of COCOMO II Software Cost Estimation Model

METRICS '02 Proceedings of the 8th International Symposium on Software Metrics
Modeling Software Bidding Risks

IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
A Review of Surveys on Software Effort Estimation

ISESE '03 Proceedings of the 2003 International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering
A Probabilistic Model for Predicting Software Development Effort

IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
Evidence-Based Guidelines for Assessment of Software Development Cost Uncertainty

IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
Software effort estimation terminology: The tower of Babel

Information and Software Technology
Better sure than safe? Over-confidence in judgement based software development effort prediction intervals

Journal of Systems and Software

A survey on software cost estimation in the chinese software industry

Proceedings of the Second ACM-IEEE international symposium on Empirical software engineering and measurement
Coping with the cone of uncertainty: an empirical study of the SAIV process model

ICSP'07 Proceedings of the 2007 international conference on Software process
Project delay variability simulation in software product line development

ICSP'07 Proceedings of the 2007 international conference on Software process
Project cost overrun simulation in software product line development

PROFES'07 Proceedings of the 8th international conference on Product-Focused Software Process Improvement

Quantified Score

Hi-index	0.00

Visualization

Abstract

It is well documented that the software industry suffers from frequent cost overruns, and the software cost estimation remains a challenging issue. A contributing factor is, we believe, the inherent uncertainty of assessment of cost. Considering the uncertainty with cost drivers and representing the cost as a distribution of values can help us better understand the uncertainty of cost estimations and provide decision support for budge setting or cost control. In this paper, we use Bayesian belief networks to extend the COCOMO II for cost estimation with uncertainty, and construct the probabilistic cost model COCOMO-U. This model can be used to deal with the uncertainties of cost factors and estimate the cost probability distribution. We also demonstrate how the COCOMO-U is used to provide decision support for software development budget setting and cost control in a case study.